CBRT forecast from Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs has predicted that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) will cut interest rates by 100 basis points every month this year. Following President Tayyip Erdoğan’s statements that interest rates would drop to single-digit figures by the end of the year, Goldman Sachs said that the Central Bank (TCMB) is expected to cut its policy rate by 100 basis points every month until the end of the year. “Since we see the TCMB as an institution that is unconnected with the monetary policy stance... we expect the TCMB to continue cutting interest rates and we foresee an interest rate cut of 100 basis points every month until the end of the year,” the statement said. The assessment also noted that the restrictive financing and macroprudential policies that have been in place so far may loosen significantly as the elections approach. Following the TCMB’s unexpected interest rate cuts of 100 basis points in the last two months, the policy rate is at 12 percent.