UNCTAD: Global trade recovers but outlook remains weak

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) stated that global trade in goods and services growth recovered in the first quarter of 2023, but expectations for the second half of the year are pessimistic. Factors such as war and geopolitical tensions, a weakening global economy, a potential increase in trade restrictive measures, slowing industrial production, inflation, commodity prices and interest rates were listed as negative factors in global trade. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) announced its global trade update report for June. The report indicated that trade growth was positive for both goods and services in the first quarter of 2023, and that world trade in goods and services recovered in both volume and value after two consecutive quarters of decline. The report stated that trade in goods increased by 1.9 percent in the first three months of the year, with approximately $100 billion, compared to the last quarter of 2022, while global trade in services increased by nearly 2.8 percent, with $50 billion, compared to the previous quarter. The report noted that a slowdown in global trade growth is forecast for the second quarter of this year, emphasizing that the outlook for global trade in the second half of 2023 is pessimistic. The report also included developments affecting global trade, and listed the increasing demand for services, trade supporting the green transformation, and the continued low cost of transportation as positive factors. Commodity prices and interest rates were listed as negative factors. The report also listed factors such as the war in Ukraine and geopolitical tensions, the weakening global economy, the potential increase in trade restrictive measures, slowing industrial production, inflation, commodity prices, and interest rates as negative factors in global trade. The report indicated that goods trade growth has followed a mixed course among major economies in the last four quarters, and noted that Brazil, India, the United States, and the European Union saw significant increases in their imports and exports, while trade growth in other major economies, especially in terms of exports, was mixed and generally negative. Growth in developing countries reached 14 percent The report noted that trade trends in the first quarter of 2023 for major economies were calmer and mostly negative, but noted that significant growth in exports from China and India were notable exceptions. The report stated that both imports and exports of developing countries increased by an average of 6 percent on an annual basis, and that excluding East Asian economies, annual trade growth for developing countries was approximately 14 percent.