CBRT forecast by the Institute of International Finance

Uğraş Ülkü, Director of the CEEMEA Research Unit of the Institute of International Finance (IIF), predicted that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) will increase the policy rate by 250 basis points in the upcoming meeting. While expectations ahead of the meeting of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) to be held on Thursday caused a sharp market reaction, especially on the exchange rate side, analyses continue to come from foreign institutions. Finally, the Institute of International Finance also shared its assessment of the TCMB. In a statement he made on his Twitter account, Uğraş Ülkü, Director of the CEEMEA Research Unit of the Institute, predicted that the TCMB will increase the interest rate by 250 basis points to 17.50 percent on Thursday, leaving it below the 24-month inflation expectation of 19 percent. Ülkü stated in his post that a 500 basis point increase and a positive real interest rate according to expected inflation could help limit the projected increase in inflation. The median expectation in the Bloomberg HT survey was that the interest rate will increase by 500 basis points to 20 percent in July. In the July interest rate survey, the maximum expectation was 21.5 percent and the minimum expectation was 17.5 percent. The median expectation for the end of 2023 in the survey was 25 percent. In the June survey, the median expectation for the end of 2023 was 30 percent.