S&P 500 expectations for 2024

Wall Street strategists, who have scrapped 2023 rally expectations but missed their predictions, are forecasting an annual rally in U.S. stocks next year. Strategists at Bank of America Corp., BMO Capital Markets and Deutsche Bank AG are among those expecting the S&P 500 to rise again next year, topping its record high set in early 2022. Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Societe Generale are less optimistic, and see stocks rising slightly by the end of 2024, even if they fall short of the previous peak. The views mark a sharp departure from forecasts from a year ago, when many warned that higher interest rates would trigger a recession and crash the stock market. The S&P 500 is up more than 18% in 2023, defying all the negative predictions amid continued economic momentum and an artificial intelligence craze that has propelled tech stocks to big gains. That leaves sell-side forecasters more optimistic, albeit more cautiously, about next year. The median target estimate is for a 3.5% increase in the S&P 500, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Binky Chadha of Deutsche Bank and Brian Belski of BMO, who were among the few who correctly predicted the rise earlier this year, are forecasting a 12% increase in the S&P 500 from Friday’s close of 5,100 points. Savita Subramanian of Bank of America sees the index finishing 2024 at 5,000. David Kostin of Goldman Sachs sees the gauge staying at 4,750 next year.