Our Daily Notes

03/25/2024 10:45 The highest weekly entry into gold ETFs since March 2023… Last week, with the effect of the Fed meeting, the S&P 500 achieved its best weekly return of the year. The index made a 2.3% premium on a weekly basis. When we look at the returns of stock indices on the US side since the beginning of the year, the “tech-intensive” Nasdaq 100 stands out. Although the equally weighted S&P 500 index and the Russell 2000 index, which also includes small-cap companies, started to close the gap with other indices as of the second half of March, they are still behind. The US 2023 4th Quarter final revision to be announced this week is especially important for these two indices. With the 2024 1st Quarter increase in the S&P 500, analysts are revising their 2024 target prices upwards. Most recently, Societe General updated its 2024 target to 5,500. The fact that the index is trading at record levels also revives IPOs that entered a “sleep period” with 2022. In March, Astra Labs and Reddit offerings in the US markets offered very good “first day” premiums to participants. On the other hand, stock sales by technology company founders and/or senior management began to increase. This side is a “risk factor” that needs to be followed closely. On Friday, the dollar index strengthened and precious metals experienced profit taking after the Atlanta Fed president shared his policy rate expectations for 2024. We maintain our view that the strengthening trend in the “dollar index” (2022-2024) will end in the long term after the BoJ made its first interest rate increase in 17 years and Powell held a press conference last week. In long-term thoughts in the dollar index, declines are no longer “buy”. Increases are “sell”. Today, the People's Bank of China made its daily Yuan fixing better than the market (in favor of the Yuan). Although gold and silver faced profit sales on Friday, the chart below is very important in terms of “precious metals”. There was a weekly inflow in gold ETFs after a long time. The ETF side was a negative point for gold this year. If ETFs start to get into the ball along with the Central Bank purchases, it may go to our 2024 target of $2,400 ounce earlier than we think. Maintaining the supports of $2,135 ounce for gold and $24.5 ounce for silver is important for the upward movement not to lose momentum. Leveraged funds are positioned in futures markets. Both gold and silver were in the highest “net long” position of the last year. The decline experienced on Friday indicates some “profit sales”. However, the trend has not changed… Another issue that caught my attention in March is the strong demand for corporate bonds. Inflows into corporate bonds in the US are experiencing their fastest month since 2020. The extra yield offered by both high yield and investment grade corporate bonds compared to treasuries is decreasing due to “high” demand… This week, the US Q4'23 growth data revision and PCE data are the highlights. Many global stock markets will be closed on Friday. We have started a 4-day trading week…