No move expected from TCMB

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) will announce its interest rate decision at 14:00. Market participants believe that the TCMB will also skip the June meeting. Domestic markets are focused on the interest rate decision of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. In a survey conducted by Bloomberg HT with the participation of 26 institutions, the expectation regarding the decision was that the policy rate will be kept at 50 percent. While the market does not expect a move in interest rates in June, the question of when the TCMB will start easing is the main question mark that the market is focused on. Three of the 20 institutions that shared their estimates regarding the timing of the first interest rate cut in Bloomberg HT's survey expect the first rate cut from the TCMB in September, while 10 institutions expect the first rate cut in the October-November-December period covering the last quarter of the year. There are seven institutions that do not expect the TCMB to cut interest rates in 2024. According to the survey, the market's estimate for the policy rate at the end of 2024 was 47.25 percent. In the 2024 year-end interest rate estimates, the highest expectation was recorded at 50 percent, while the lowest expectation was recorded at 40 percent. BofA analysts, including Zümrüt İmamoğlu, stated in a note they published, “The economy is slowing down. The continuation of tight monetary policy is critical to ensuring that disinflation continues in 2025 and beyond.”