Russia's oil exports suffer steepest decline since war

Russia’s seaborne crude exports totaled 18.7 million barrels in the week ending July 7, compared with 25.66 million barrels the week before. Russia’s weekly crude exports fell by the most since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine in the seven days leading up to July 7, while the less volatile four-week average fell to its lowest level since February. There was no clear reason for the drop in shipments in markets. There were no developments in loading schedules indicating maintenance work, nor were there adverse weather conditions affecting the docking or loading of ships. However, shipments from the Baltic, Black Sea and Pacific fell compared with the previous week. According to Bloomberg, scenarios include a decline in exportable crude as Russia’s compliance with the OPEC+ production target increases. Using Moscow’s conversion factor of 7.18 barrels per tonne, production fell by about 360,000 barrels per day between March and June. A recovery in refinery operations may have also reduced shipments. Data for the first few days of July showed the highest level since December as seasonal maintenance and repairs were completed following the Ukraine attacks. Russia’s largest crude exporters, Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, plan to reduce their total shipments from Novorossiysk this month by about 200,000 bpd from June levels after they restart refining operations at their Tuapse and Norsi sites, according to Bloomberg calculations.