No move expected from TCMB on interest rates

In domestic markets, attention has turned to the interest rate decision of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB). Market participants do not expect any interest rate steps from the TCMB in July either. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) will announce its July interest rate decision at 14:00. In a survey conducted by Bloomberg HT with the participation of 26 institutions, the expectation was that the policy rate would be kept constant at 50 percent. The TCMB had brought forward the date of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting to July 23 due to Governor Fatih Karahan's schedule. In the Bloomberg HT survey, 26 institutions shared their interest rate estimates for the end of 2024. Accordingly, the market's estimate for the policy rate at the end of 2024 was 47.5 percent. The highest expectation in the 2024 year-end interest rate estimates was recorded at 52.5 percent, while the lowest expectation was recorded at 40 percent. Survey participants also shared their expectations for the first interest rate cut. Accordingly, three of the 26 institutions that shared their estimates expect the first cut from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in September. In the previous survey, this number was 1. 15 institutions expect the first interest rate cut in the October-November-December period, which covers the last quarter of the year. There are 6 institutions that do not expect an interest rate cut from the CBRT in 2024.