This week, intensive data traffic will be monitored in the economy

Global markets have been following a mixed course this week due to the ongoing uncertainty regarding when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin cutting interest rates, while all eyes are on the interest rate decision to be announced by the Fed next week. All eyes are on the CBRT’s interest rate decision in the country… While question marks are increasing regarding whether the ongoing fight against inflation is coming to an end worldwide, uncertainties regarding the monetary policies to be taken in the upcoming period continue globally. Analysts said that with both consumer and producer inflation figures announced in the US this week exceeding estimates, the chances that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates in the first half of the year have weakened. In money markets, it is almost certain that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at its monetary policy meeting to be held on March 19-20, while the probability that the bank will begin cutting interest rates is priced in at 7 percent in May and 59 percent in June. Analysts emphasized the importance of verbal guidance to be given by Fed Chair Jerome Powell after the bank's interest rate decision next week, and stated that the "dot plot" graph, which includes the bank's projections for the economy and members' expectations regarding the policy rate, has also become the focus of investors. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed regret for saying that inflation in 2021 was "temporary" and stated that she expects rental costs, which are the item that makes the "biggest contribution" to inflation in the country, to decrease this year and that it takes some time for changes in rental rates to be reflected in the CPI. All eyes on inflation data in Europe While European stock markets followed a buying-heavy trend last week, all eyes turned to the inflation data to be announced next week as well as the interest rate decision to be announced by the Bank of England (BoE) on Thursday. While the verbal guidance of the European Central Bank (ECB) members was followed throughout the week, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said that the ECB will have enough information to decide whether to lower interest rates in June. Asian Stock Markets Followed a Mixed Course While Asian stock markets had a mixed course last week, all eyes turned to the interest rate decision to be announced by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) next week. The data to be announced in Japan stands out in the week starting March 18. In Japan, the BOJ's interest rate decision will be announced on Tuesday, and the CPI data will be announced on Friday. All eyes are on the CBRT's interest rate decision in Turkey. In Turkey, the BIST 100 index on Borsa Istanbul closed the week with a 3.57 percent decrease to 8,828.70 points, while the interest rate decision to be announced by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) at its Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) meeting next week became the focus of investors. The USD/TL closed the week 0.5 percent above the previous close at 32.0749. According to the TCMB Market Participants Survey announced last week, the expectation for an increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased from 37.78 percent to 36.70 percent for the 12-month period and from 23.05 percent to 22.67 percent for the 24-month period. Analysts stated that the TCMB may continue its current tight monetary policy until there is a significant slowdown in inflation. Within the scope of additional tightening steps, the TCMB increased the interest rate on cash withdrawals from credit cards and overdraft accounts to a level compatible with the interest rate on consumer loans, while taking new steps to increase the share of Turkish lira deposits in the banking system. The bank changed the calculation method of the monthly maximum contractual interest rate to be applied on cash advance transactions from credit cards and overdraft accounts. According to the new method, the calculated monthly maximum contractual interest rate was increased from 4.42 percent to 5 percent.