How realistic is the CBRT's year-end forecast after the July inflation?

In July, annual inflation was recorded as 79.60 percent and the rising series moved to the 14th month. After the inflation recorded in July, year-end estimates were also on the agenda again. BLOOMBERG HT RESEARCH After annual inflation rose to a 24-year high at 79.60 percent in July, attention turned to the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's inflation estimate. In its third inflation report of the year, the CBRT raised its year-end inflation estimate from 42.8 percent to 60.4 percent. In the latest survey by the Bloomberg HT Research Unit, the year-end inflation expectation rose to 70.75 percent. So how realistic are these estimates? What scenarios will different paths in inflation lead to in the process extending to the end of the year? The Bloomberg HT Research Unit created three hypothetical scenarios for the end of 2022. An attempt was made to calculate the possible course of inflation if inflation comes in at 1 percent, 3 percent and 5 percent in the monthly inflation data to be announced by the end of the year. It is also worth noting that the average monthly inflation rate in the August-December period of the last 5 years was 4.37 percent. However, the monthly inflation rate, which exceeded 13 percent in December 2021, significantly increased the averages. If inflation is 1 percent monthly for the next 5 months, inflation will be 53.15 percent at the end of the year. If inflation is 3 percent monthly for the next 5 months, inflation will be 68.93 percent at the end of the year. If inflation is 5 percent monthly for the next 5 months, inflation will be 85.98 percent at the end of the year.