China commentary from Oxford Economics

According to Oxford Economics, if China takes longer than expected to ease its zero COVID-19 policy and allow for reopening, China’s GDP growth will decline by 1 percentage point next year, according to Oxford Economics. Stating that if China delays the reopening of the economy to the first half of 2024, the recovery in the private sector will be delayed, Oxford Economics senior economist Louise Loo argued that this situation would reduce the growth forecast for 2023 from 4.2 percent to 3.2 percent. “The risks to the short-term macro outlook that we have laid out are clearly on the downside,” Loo said, emphasizing that their current forecasts predict the reopening of the economy will be in the second half of next year.