US CPI data (April 2024)

05/15/2024 04:20 PM The headline figure is below expectations. The rest is in line with market expectations. The 3.6% annual change in the core is the lowest increase in the last three years. More than 70% of the monthly increase in the headline is made up of housing and gasoline prices. After increasing 0.4% for three consecutive months in monthly changes in the core side, it decreased to 0.3% in April. Despite the monthly decrease in vehicle prices, interestingly, “vehicle insurance costs” continue to increase… While the “deflation” process continues in the products side in annual changes in the core (-1.3%), the disinflation process is progressing slowly on the services side… Core services decreased from 5.4% to 5.3%. The monthly change in the super core is 0.42%, the lowest figure since January. The annual change increased from 4.8% to 4.91%. The annual change in the super core is the highest figure since April 2023…. Commentary on the data set: Inflation data announced in the first three months of the year indicated that the disinflation process had come to a standstill and that the “final plateau” would be difficult. Hopes for the disinflation process increased in the April data. However, the super core side still points to the difficulty of reaching the target before the “employment market” cools down further. In short, the market will continue to focus on the “full half of the glass” after the data. Market pricing: US 10-year yields are below the 50-Day Moving Average for the first time since March. We are below the 4.4% figures after a long time. Precious metals are gaining strength with “increasing interest rate cut possibilities”. Silver rose above the level I indicated in the morning. The dollar index is selling. EURUSD closed above 200 gho yesterday. It will also realize above 100 gho today… Bitcoin finally “exited” from the $60k-$62.5k range… The “real estate” sector may come to the fore in the short term after the decline in US 10-year yields. Retail sales data was also announced along with the CPI data. The fact that both the headline and the control group lost strength there is a structure that strengthens the possibility of an “interest rate cut”.